Evaluating the Benefits and Costs of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) Project
26 September 2022
Background
The East African Crude Oil Pipeline Project (EACOP[1]) which was launched on the 1st of February 2022 is a pipeline project intended to transport oil produced at Uganda’s Lake Albert oilfields to the port of Tanga in Tanzania for sale on the worldwide market. The EACOP pipeline runs 1,443 kilometers from Kabaale in the Hoima district of Uganda to the Chongoleani Peninsula near Tanga Port in Tanzania. 80% of the pipeline lies in Tanzania, and this project is expected to be completed by 2025. The project consists of several partners, with the French multinational oil company Total Energies (Total) as the principal investor (62%), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) 8%, Uganda National Oil Company (15%), and the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (15%). In terms of the refinery project, Uganda will hold a 40% share (PAU, 2022).
However, the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline project (EACOP) has continuously faced resistance from environmental and climate change activists, and civil societies locally and globally. The activists have pointed out key environment concerns of the project such as oil spillage, displacement of people, and wildlife given the ecological richness of the Albertine region. On Wednesday, 14th September 2022, the EU parliament passed a resolution on several environment and human rights concerns about the project and urged the project promoters to redress moving forward. This was received with mixed reactions in Uganda on both social and mainstream media, with activists, and civil societies applauding the resolution, on the other hand, the Government of Uganda condemned the action calling it an attack on the sovereignty of the country. These reactions prompted the Uganda Association of Environmental and Natural Resource Economists to convene experts and key stakeholders to discuss the costs and benefits of EACOP, and the future of fossil fuels in developing countries amidst their aspiration to achieve the sustainable development goals.
On Tuesday, 20th September 2022, The Uganda Association of Environmental and Natural Resource Economists (UAENRE, 2022) hosted a virtual dialogue on Twitter, bringing together environment and economics experts, and a representative from the East African Crude Oil Pipeline Project to insightfully discuss the costs and benefits of the project The session was joined by participants with a balanced, diverse, technical, insightful, and enlightening expertise that was worth tapping for EACOP’s inclusive, efficient, and effective future.
Economics of the Project
EACOP estimates that $3.55 billion will be invested in the construction of the pipeline in Uganda and Tanzania. (Kazi & Bagezi, 2018) cited that the total revenues received by the Government of Uganda over the 2001/2002–2013/2014 period amount to over US$ 630 as per the Bank of Uganda annual report 2011 – 2016.
According to the Petroleum Authority of Uganda 2022, the government will reap US$ 66 billion annually (US$ 2.6 billion annually) from upstream projects and it is expected to earn US$ 400 million from EACOP dividends and taxes, as well as US$ 3.3 billion in dividends and taxes from the refinery. During the project’s 30-year lifespan, the Government of Uganda is expected to earn US$ 69.7 billion which is more than the estimates cited by Kazi and Bagezi, 2018 from the Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OXCARRE), 2012 at US$ 20 billion at a 7% discount, and from the World Bank’s Commodity Market Review Report 2017 at US$ 43.4 billion without a discount over a 30-year period (Kazi and Bagezi, 2018). Furthermore, in return for the US$ 15 billion investment in the projects, the Petroleum Authority of Uganda estimates that 40% will be retained in the country and the following benefits will be registered:
- The sector will directly employ 10,111 Ugandans;
- Indirect and induced employment opportunities of 35,000 and 100,000, respectively;
- An estimated $20 million will be invested in training Ugandans for over 450 contracts awarded;
- Ugandan companies will receive US$ 7.7 million for capacity building;
- Over US$ 980 million of the US$ 3.5 billion spent on exploration went to Ugandan businesses and individuals;
- The US$ 6.8 billion on over 450 contracts awarded in the development phase was executed by Ugandan companies to the tune of US$ 1.73 billion;
- An estimated US$ 6 million was spent on technology and knowledge transfer.
The Environmental and Social Aspects
On December 3, 2019, the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) granted Total East Africa Midstream B.V a certificate of approval for an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) Project in Uganda. Additionally, EACOP created an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) that outlines how the company will promote the best environmental and social management practices to minimize adverse negative environmental and social impacts associated with oil exploration throughout the lifecycle of the projects.
However, civil societies and campaigns such as “We cannot drink[1] oil” also point out that the project is catastrophic to the environment and future generations. It has been criticized for diverging from the Paris agreement’s path to emission reduction, and for its adverse impacts on sensitive and protected ecosystems such as forests, game reserves, game-controlled areas, lakes, and wetlands. Uganda is a signatory to several international agreements, such as the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and the 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.
In the recommendations made by the Civil Society Coalition on Oil and Gas in 2021, it was noted that the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) approved EACOP’s ESIA without addressing stakeholders’ comments and inputs, contrary to commitments and assurances made by NEMA and oil companies during the hearings which undermine the purpose of public hearings and also raise credibility concerns about the quality of the approved ESIA. In addition, it was also cited that the project impacts and mitigation measures were generalized which makes it difficult to quantify and value the impacts of the project on the environment and natural resources, and its overall social impacts.
EU Parliament’s Concerns
On Wednesday 14th, September 2022, the European Parliament adopted a joint motion or a resolution on violations of human rights in Uganda and Tanzania linked to investments in fossil fuels projects. This resolution is noted to affect the future operation of the project (Zdechovský et al., 2022). The EU Parliament highlights the following issues:
- Drilling oil within in protected and sensitive ecosystems such as the shores of Lake Albert and Murchison Falls natural protected areas;
- Jeopardizing natural resources and irremediably harming the livelihoods of local communities;
- East African environment and climate civil society organizations and actors strongly oppose the project;
- Extraction of oil in Uganda would generate up to 34 million tonnes of carbon emissions per year;
- Planned production from this large-scale oil project would be extracted and sold after 2030 which is contrary to the Paris agreement targets;
- Critical flaws in the environmental and social impact assessments which ignore oil spills over the lifetime of the project;
- Imprisonment, criminalization, intimidation, and harassment of a list of environment and human rights actors;
- Inadequacy in the ‘duty of vigilance’ by Total energies on environment, health, and safety as required by the France law;
- Barred civil societies, observers, researchers, and journalists from entering the oil zone;
- Often inadequate and unfair compensation to local communities’ lands and other resources.
Key points
It is important to note that in this discussion, all participants followed facts, science, and diplomacy; therefore, extreme and unfound claims had no room in the debate. Below are the key points noted during the deliberations:
In Uganda and the world over, climate change has been recognized as a crisis with multiple impacts such as drought, floods, loss of lives, famine, conflicts, poverty, and diseases, driven by extreme weather variations that have been anticipated to increase by the recent AR6 report (IPCC, 2022). The Regional Director of Earth Day Africa Derrick Mugisha noted that, “even though the project is expected to generate billions of dollars for the country, the country is very vulnerable to climate impacts and environmental degradation which makes even the future of the infrastructure and biodiversity into jeopardy.” He added that, “Uganda’s involvement in the EACOP project sets an example in the region that will encourage other countries to engage in fossil fuel exploitation instead of fighting climate change, combating desertification, and preserving biodiversity for sustainable development.”
Regarding the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), EACOP’s Consultant Alex Robert Lwanga noted that, “it took three years to complete the assessment, which is the longest in Uganda, and the international companies engaged are aware of the project’s environmental sensitivity, and they will ensure compliance with the environmental guidelines set forth… the pipeline is 6 kilometers from the lake, which is not close to the water bodies; and local communities are well compensated for their natural resources even more than existing standards, and those who are unhappy are still trying to negotiate inclusive compensations with them.” He also noted that, “the pipeline will pass underground, and the top surface will be restored with vegetation.”
NEMA should ensure that stakeholders’ comments are addressed by developers during the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment public hearing process, with consideration of the marginalized groups such as indigenous peoples and local communities, and their representatives or civil societies. Considering the environmental sensitivity of the project, its ESIA should be continuously monitored and updated to ensure that it is compliant with the set guidelines, but also to offer an opportunity to add additional environmental and social impact mitigation and prevention measures during the project life cycle.
The government should strongly abide by its local policies and laws, inclusive of environmental policies and all related environmental charges related to projects undertaken within the country. A Natural Resource Economist Christopher Tusiime stressed that, ”Uganda has well-drafted policies and documents on environmental management, climate change, human rights, and environmental and social impact assessment, but the country has fallen short in its implementations.” He also noted, that “even if the implementing partners are international corporations, the government should be keen and strict to ensure that they comply with their environmental and social obligations.” In addition, environmental-related taxes should be clearly stated, accounted for, and directly allocated to the preservation and protection of the environment and natural resources within the country.
EACOP should publicize the project’s activities, benefits, and costs so that all affected stakeholders have an opportunity to understand existing opportunities and how to utilize them, and also understand the costs that result from the project so that when it comes to dialogues and compensations, they can make informed decisions and deliberations. It is imperative to provide this kind of information in the local languages through local media outlets in the regions.
EACOP should promote transparency when conducting its business. For example, preventing observers, researchers, organizations, and journalists from accessing the working sites increases distrust. It is necessary to strengthen human rights respect and observance to enhance the rule of law not only during the execution of this project but also in treating those who oppose it. Respectful and inclusive dialogue and engagement should be promoted and supported by EACOP among the various stakeholders including local communities which are affected by the project, associations, activists, researchers, and local and international organizations that have concerns or interests in the project.
Clean energy costs were cited as being extremely high and inaccessible for Ugandans. The reason for this was the sophisticated and limited technologies used to extract the various resources and the prohibitive cost of clean energy products such as electric cars. Therefore, if theirs is no action to address these challenges, the green transition will result in widening income gaps and limiting access to services for several people, resulting in overreliance on countries from which these products are produced. For this reason, Uganda and the rest of the world must invest in innovation and production of clean energy and products that are affordable, accessible, and producible by developing countries.
The US$100 billion (Kate, 2022) financial target should be met and increased by developed countries to address the climate crisis in developing countries. The failure to respect and meet these commitments leaves developing countries in a state of despair. The climate crisis disproportionately affects developing countries compared to developed countries, ranging from the unprecedented long severe drought periods in Kenya and Somalia to the recent floods in Pakistan. These extreme weather events affect millions of people and claim thousands of lives. In the face of these impacts, developing countries are left at the mercy of extremely limited and competitive donations and grants, even though they contribute less to the problem. In times such as these, developing nations are left feeling helpless, overwhelmed, and hopeless, which tempts them to pursue projects that might not be in their best interests, if at all they can provide them with incomes to build their resilience and independence.
All nations and civil societies should condemn and act against the use and exploitation of fossil fuels equally so that no nation sees itself as a target for impeded development or condemned because of unfounded accusations. Several examples were given of how developed countries are still negotiating and signing deals to buy fossil fuels in countries in the Middle East, specifically during the current deterioration in relations with Russia. Therefore, developed countries should dissociate themselves from such transactions, which is not only an exemplary act but also narrows and devalues the market for these fuels.
Developing countries should abide by and act toward the achievement of the targets set by the international agreements they are signatories to. Both developed and developing countries have vested enormous amount of time, experience, and resources to develop and improve international agreements for a better world, and it’s unequivocal that these agreements have enabled a realization of the global village for humans, the environment, and trade everywhere, whereby injustice anywhere, is injustice everywhere, and whereby, pollution anywhere, is pollution everywhere. This gives a right to countries to speak up or even act in case a nation diverts from what it agreed to abide by in an international declaration it ratified.
Developing nations should invest in renewable energies and infrastructure. Though it is acknowledged that developing countries are hardly hit by the climate crisis and are constrained by limited budgets, they should invest and have clear paths to transition to greener economies. Through approaches that have proven to be effective and efficient in a setting of rapidly increasing population, rapid urbanization, and limited incomes. Government should invest in electric trains, hydropower generation, and its wide transmission, buses, and promotion of more sharing of transport, machinery, spaces, and equipment. This does not only minimize emissions but also saves financial resources and time which are key for economic and sustainable development. In support, developed countries and international financial institutions should avail funds either as grants or loans at attractively low or zero interest rates to support a green transition in developing countries.
Last but not least, it was noted that oil and gas production is not a precondition for economic development. Though there are countries in the past that have become rich through the production of oil and gas, the sector has been noted to be faced with a ‘resource curse’ in Africa which has been associated with weak institutions which are prone to corruption, resulting to more inequalities, compromised institutions, instabilities and locking the country into polluting energy systems. The government should enhance transparency, equity, and accountability in registering and allocating benefits accruing from the project; avail long-term plans of how revenue from the project is to benefit people; strengthen institutions; enhance response to oil price fluctuations; and refrain from unsustainable debts which put the country’s resources in jeopardy.
Conclusion
In conclusion, much has been highlighted expounding on the cost and benefits of the EACOP project that offers options, possibilities, and recommendations for sustainable development most especially for developing countries. The evaluation might seem complex, but in it lies long-term solutions, alternatives, and approaches which can enable both developed and developing countries to strike a balance between the pursuit of economic development and sustainable development.
About UAENRE
The Uganda Association of Environmental and Natural Resource Economists (UAENRE) was founded in 2019 by graduates from Busitema University’s Faculty of Natural Resource Economics. The government of Uganda established this faculty in 2010 to enhance efficient, effective, and inclusive valuation, allocation, and overall management of natural resources (oil inclusive) for sustainable development. As a result, the association commits to fulfilling this commitment professionally. UAENRE is committed to working with all stakeholders to enhance sustainable development in Uganda.
Authors
Brian Mayanja
Simon Peter Ngorok
Christopher Tusiime
